Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 36.841934 43.702754 51.282482 60.249264 70.537318 81.941477 95.507721
2024-10-20 29.254449 38.977486 50.789170 66.063533 85.147467 108.048526 137.436432
2024-10-27 21.301627 31.257740 44.329011 62.475545 86.700849 117.577199 159.497159
2024-11-03 17.993267 28.551871 43.302182 64.950900 95.360887 135.923545 193.350263
2024-11-10 15.869702 26.963375 43.314889 68.474512 105.352889 156.422840 231.234323
2024-11-17 14.059769 25.444594 43.068203 71.363869 114.437502 176.082960 269.103317
2024-11-24 12.034938 23.189337 41.308816 71.626361 119.480119 190.135988 299.760610
2024-12-01 9.951369 20.442689 38.336043 69.533353 120.564725 198.237945 322.033799
2024-12-08 8.650828 18.835772 36.985019 69.806792 125.204221 211.781086 353.003921
2024-12-15 7.673410 17.650995 36.174813 70.825466 131.010458 227.351269 387.815851
2024-12-22 6.002910 14.786421 31.939012 65.372855 125.484682 224.501309 393.552563
2024-12-29 5.439166 14.103910 31.672277 66.967252 132.037788 241.454900 431.598101
2025-01-05 4.475607 12.472374 29.554301 65.324482 133.556369 251.517786 461.417155
2025-01-12 4.340976 12.745636 31.382896 71.573417 150.091246 288.481573 538.792116
2025-01-19 3.407073 10.848598 28.325179 67.729408 147.521701 292.257116 560.449088
2025-01-26 3.087294 10.439737 28.448823 70.383016 157.505080 318.789098 622.777885
2025-02-02 2.873530 10.266187 29.076401 74.158498 169.979566 350.585465 696.117722
2025-02-09 2.641086 9.979846 29.384572 77.253007 181.322211 380.981002 768.605095
2025-02-16 2.295633 9.257416 28.495531 77.534078 186.895867 400.909279 823.235922
2025-02-23 1.893124 8.226966 26.628763 75.292661 186.933292 410.237144 858.854953
2025-03-02 1.650596 7.656464 25.874634 75.585524 192.382995 430.321161 915.520389
2025-03-09 1.467524 7.240041 25.470495 76.676468 199.649783 454.388173 980.920853
2025-03-16 1.108696 6.015787 22.493400 70.835251 190.776661 445.442790 982.395575